Scenarios Service Elimination Scenario is built on the original Gridlock Scenario. Long Wait Times Scenario reduces frequencies on all services. Fares Only Scenario generates revenue from a fare increase. The Gridlock Plus Fares Scenario is based on the Gridlock Budget presented during budget discussions in 2004 plus a supplemental fare increase. Modified Sunday Schedule Scenario is based on the Sunday route structure. Guiding Principles Maintain as much availability as possible for transit dependent customers. Maintain regional connections where possible. Spread the burden of the cost reductions in an equitable manner. Title VI & Environmental Justice Review Process The Federal Transit Administration requires a Title VI and Environmental Justice review. Agencies must consider the composition of affected areas to determine whether minority or low-income populations are present and if so, whether there may be disproportionately high adverse effects on these populations. Each service board is required to look at service independent from other services available in the area. It is not a ‘regional’ review. Title VI & Environmental Justice Review A preliminary Title VI and Environmental Justice review has been completed. The Affirmative Action Office is charged with making the final determination of compliance. Final Scenario may contain changes to fully comply with Title VI and Environmental Justice. Route Elimination Scenario Based on Gridlock Budget presented in 2004. Services with riders per hour lower than 150% of system average reviewed for elimination. Provides uneven impact on customers. Busy routes have little change in service but may face significant crowding while lighter routes have intensive changes (including elimination). Overnight Owl rail service and Purple Line Express service is eliminated. Hours and frequency of service are reduced on remaining routes. Sixty-five routes eliminated on weekdays, 38 routes on Saturday, 32 routes on Sunday. Rail Owl service is eliminated. 12% decline in service coverage. 36% Increase in wait time. 33% decline in service hours. Estimated at least 52 million customers lost. Long Wait Times Scenario All routes are retained with reduced frequency. Maximizes geographic availability. All lines on the map remain but may not be viable services. Longer wait times and over-crowding of buses and platforms are expected: Overnight Owl rail service and Purple Line Express service is eliminated. Other rail lines will operate less frequently over fewer hours. Ridership is lost through lack of service and inability to board due to over-crowding. No routes are eliminated. No decline in service coverage. No change in price. 110% increase in wait time. 46% decline in service hours. Estimated 147 million customers lost. Fares Only Scenario No service reductions are implemented. If raised across the board, base fares increase to roughly $2.50 and transfer rates double to 50 cents. If rush hour premiums are introduced, base fares increase to roughly $2.10 and peak fares increase to roughly $3.00. If a rail premium is introduced, the base fares increase to roughly $2.15 on bus while rail fares increase to roughly $3.40. No service reductions are implemented. At least 43% increase in price. No change in service coverage. No change in wait time. No change in service hours. Although the model estimates at least 40 million customers lost in first year, it does not take into account the effect of back to back fare increases. Back to back increases in April 1990 and December 1991 contributed to a ridership loss of 79 million customers (588 to 509 million) from 1990 to 1992. With scale of fare increase, there is likely an additional lag effect as people find alternative modes of transportation. Gridlock plus Fare Scenario Based on Gridlock Budget presented in 2004 with a fare increase. Services with riders per hour lower than 75% of system average reviewed for elimination. Base fare increases from $1.75 to $2.00 or more, 30-day pass prices increase from $75 to at least $90. Uneven impact on customers - busy routes have little change while lighter routes have more intensive changes (including elimination). Twenty-nine weekday routes eliminated, 30 Saturday routes and 28 Sunday routes. Overnight Owl rail service is eliminated. Minimum 15% increase in price to $2.00. 7% decline in service coverage. 36% increase in wait time. 21% decline in service hours. Although model estimates 53 million customers will be lost in the first year, this may be invalid due to the combination effect of fare increases and service reduction. Fare increases plus service reductions have compounded effects in subsequent years. From 1980 to 1982, CTA experienced major fare increases and service reductions and lost 80 million customers. Modified Sunday Schedules Scenario Based on Sunday schedule. Remaining services will operate less frequently and hours of service will be shorter. Rail Owl service is eliminated under this scenario. Bus Owl service remains at lower service levels. Impact is felt hardest by downtown commuters. Fifty-four routes eliminated on weekdays, 35 on Saturday. Rail Owl service is eliminated. No change in price. 9% decline in service coverage. 68% increase in wait time. 39% decline in service hours. Estimated 101 million customers lost. Comparison of Measures Each of the evaluation measures have quantitative aspects. Combining measures into one slide distorts the issues by making apples to oranges comparisons. The widely varying confidence levels associated with each measure need to be considered independently by the Board. The five scenarios are compared in light of the three guiding principles that were affirmed at the February meeting. Service Compared to Principle Transit Dependent Customers Service Compared to Principle Regional Connections Service Compared to Principle Spreads the Burden Scenario Implementation March 9 – CTA Board meeting. March 14 - April 12 Public hearing process. April 13 – CTA Board meeting. April 14 – Employee bidding process begins. April 26 – Layoff letters to affected employees. July 4 – Recommended schedule implementation.